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от  https://www.wavetrack.com/

 

 

Stock Indices

As global stock indices are edging higher, the picture is becoming more and more mixed which reflects the uncertainty present in the markets. This is primarily because of the proximity of most indices to their original Elliott Wave target areas coupled with a generally overbought condition. Although the short-term outlook for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones (DJIA) suggests a slight extension to original higher objectives, the Eurostoxx 50 and Shanghai’s Composite Index are in a very vulnerable position as their pattern structure is approaching completion. Is it an irony that at this point of time the Chinese Alibaba group stages the U.S. history’s largest initial public offering that, according to Bloomberg, owes its size to a virtual non-stop rally in U.S. shares with a value increase of US$ 15 trillion over the last years? Might this be a contrarian signal par excellence? The euphoria sparked by this event could fuel another finalising attempt higher followed by a major reversal that would set a directional change for the next several months to come. The most diverging outlook to this scenario is provided by the Nikkei which has significantly outperformed during the last weeks and, more recently, broken above its late Dec.’13 high of 16320.22. This gives way to a 7% upswing from current levels which seems quite rich when compared to most of the other indices. Yet the comparison with the US$/Yen, positively correlated with the Nikkei 225, suggests upside targets to 17500.00+/- for the stock index are viable. 25th September 2014

 

 

 

 

Commodities

Gold and silver have registered oversold conditions on just about every momentum indicator there is and yet prices have continued lower in defiance. Medium-term downside targets for gold remain towards 1096.00+/- and whilst we expect further downside activity during the next few days, the oversold condition is expected to neutralise during the counter-trend rally with next support towards 1182.50. Meanwhile, silver’s underperformance continues with the gold/silver ratio now at a 4-year high of 69.00. Medium-term downside targets remain towards 16.46 and could stretch to 16.15 but to synchronise with gold at 1096.00, the ratio would be required to contract towards 67.86. This seems unlikely although if silver did begin to stabilise, it would be a perfect bullish divergence signal that major lows were being approached. The GDX gold miners index is accelerating downwards in line with our recent forecasts and we expect an attempt during the next couple of months towards 15.90 before finalising its medium-term downtrend. Likewise, the XAU downside targets are at 60.60 and their various component equities such as Barrick Resources, Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining are in similar Elliott Wave pattern structures requiring additional downside levels during the next couple of months. Crude oil is losing downside momentum with support slightly underneath current levels at 89.42. But its overall decline from its Aug.’13 high of 112.24 continues unfolding into a five wave impulse pattern. This will take another few months to complete but ultimate downside targets remain towards 77.28 to complete its multi-year counter-trend decline from the May ’11 highs.25th September 2014

 

 

 

Currencies (FX)

The US$ index is now approaching original short-term upside objectives towards 8551. A reversal from there would validate a temporary sell-off towards idealised support at 8386 prior to the continuation higher. From an Elliott Wave pattern perspective, the anticipated 8551 high is seen as the completion of the 3rd of 3rd within the US$’s larger five wave upswing from the May ’14 low of 7890. This suggests two additional higher highs in the months ahead and therefore reinforces the overall bullish outlook with ultimate projections to 8885+/-. The Euro/US$ is approaching a temporary low as the conclusion of its 3rd wave decline from the July high of 1.3701. A 4th wave counter-trend correction is then expected prior to a finalising 5th wave sell-off to ultimate downside objectives at 1.2400+/-. This will complete a multi-month expanding flat sequence and set the stage for a sustained advance into 2015. US$/Yen has sold off from last Thursday’s high of 10946 but this decline is seen as a temporary correction within a progressive five wave expanding-impulse sequence in progress from the 10106 low. Longer-term fib-price ratios converge with the shorter-term measurements towards an upside convergence at 11238-58 – this should offer a reliable resistance zone for a possible reversal signature to validate the completion of the multi-year upswing from the Oct.’11 low of 7556. Meanwhile, AUD/US$ is approaching the critical downside support at 0.8658 – the fib. 76.4% retracement at 0.8851 has already been achieved with a traded low of 0.8831. A reversal is indicated to maintain the bullish outlook and begin a 3rd wave upside acceleration. A decline lower and eventual break below the 2014 low of 0.8658 would otherwise prolong the preceding primary wave 4 decline towards ultimate downside projections at 0.8473+/-. 25th September 2014

 

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